In December 2018, the UK Government published an Immigration White Paper which detailed migration policy after Brexit, and incorporated a number of recommendations from an earlier report by the Migration Advisory Committee. This report discusses the likely impact of these policies on the Welsh economy.
Although the proportional reduction in migration will be higher in Wales than the UK, because Wales is less dependent on migration than the UK as a whole the overall impact on Wales will be less. We estimate a hit to GDP of between roughly 1 and 1.5% of GDP over ten years, compared to 1.5 to 2% for the UK as a whole.
The proposals outlined in the Immigration White Paper will end free movement. Both EU and non-EU migrants who wish to come to the UK to work will normally have to apply via the Tier 2 skilled worker route, which will be liberalised and simplified; however, those earning less than £30,000 (subject to consultation) will generally not qualify.