The evidence shows that while reaching the 2035 target is achievable, it will require fast and large-scale action in order to provide the necessary level of electricity generation capacity.
Decarbonising the electricity system by moving to low- and zero-carbon electricity generation and electrification of heat, transport and industrial processes will be a vital part of reaching net zero targets. The UK government has set a target for decarbonisation of electricity generation by 2035.
The Welsh Government, as part of its Co-operation Agreement with Plaid Cymru, committed to ‘commission independent advice to examine potential pathways to net zero by 2035’. In response to this the Wales Net Zero 2035 Challenge Group has been formed, chaired by former minister Jane Davidson.
The Wales Centre for Public Policy (WCPP) has been given funding by the Welsh Government to provide independent support to the Challenge Group, to help them to access relevant evidence and expertise to inform their work. These outputs form our submission towards the second Challenge Area, ‘How could Wales meet energy needs by 2035 while phasing out fossil fuels?’
Our outputs show that, while reaching the 2035 target is achievable, it will require fast and large-scale action in order to provide the necessary level of electricity generation capacity.
Our work on Challenges and opportunities of decarbonising Wales’ electricity system by 2035 by Jack Price shows the scale of the challenge. We will need to more than double the best build rate of energy infrastructure we have achieved in the past fifty years, and do that every year for the next twelve years.
Capacity will need to be managed against increases in electricity demand from electrification; digitalisation of the economy; and demographic changes. Recognising the central importance of energy to our economy and society, the paper calls for joined-up and long-term thinking about how to manage the energy transition.
In Accelerating deployment of energy infrastructure by Jack Price and Greg Notman, we turn to the ways in which governments might speed up the build rate of new renewable energy projects and other associated energy infrastructure.
Building on the Infrastructure (Wales) Bill, we consider case studies from other countries which have managed to ramp up infrastructure deployment. These show different ways that new processes can be implemented, as well as providing interim arrangements while new laws are passed. We also consider how to maximise and best deploy public engagement without significantly extending project timelines.
Finally, a thinkpiece will be published later this week. Pathways for meeting Wales’ energy needs into the future by Andy Regan will provide a rounded look at the Welsh energy system and its place in the Great Britain energy market and ways in which it may develop in the future.
This expert opinion piece challenges rhetoric around Wales’ energy system, making the case for partnership working at a Britain-wide level to embed the energy transition, highlighting the role of Ofgem in supporting the transmission and distribution infrastructure new generation and demand will need.
In short:
- There is lots to do to decarbonise the electricity system, including a daunting level of infrastructure deployment;
- Changes to the planning and consenting process can significantly accelerate the level of deployment, which are seen in case studies from elsewhere; and
- Any decarbonisation programme will need to be GB-wide and not Wales-specific, with strong partnership working between different levels of the energy system to ensure that both Wales and the UK meet their decarbonisation targets.