Raising the age of participation in education to 18

In England, the compulsory age of participation in education or training was raised to 17 in 2013 and then 18 in 2015. In Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, the school leaving age is 16. The idea of raising the age of participation in education or training is gaining traction in the Scottish context, as well as in Wales.

The Wales Centre for Public Policy (WCPP) conducted research for the Welsh Government to explore the implications of pursuing this policy in Wales. The research considered how raising the participation age (RPA) might interact with ongoing reforms to school age and post-16 provision in Wales, and explored alternative policies which concentrate on reducing early school leaving as opposed to policies that legally require young people to remain in learning for longer periods of time.

To examine the above issues, the WCPP commissioned:

• A desk-based literature review to look at qualitative international evidence on the benefits and challenges of RPA, as well as alternative policies.
  • To understand how RPA would interact with current and planned policy reform in Wales, a small number of interviews with key stakeholders in Welsh Government and the wider education sector were conducted.
• Quantitative analysis to model the impact of RPA in Wales, should it be implemented, compared to a baseline of current voluntary participation levels at ages 17 and 18.

Overall, the qualitative evidence to support legislation which raises the participation age in learning is weak. International experience shows a small positive effect on qualification attainment, unemployment rates and future earnings. However, the impact on improving retention rates in post-16 learning is questionable. On the basis of the evidence, RPA would generate limited benefits for young people who are least engaged in learning.

The quantitative analysis complements these findings, demonstrating that any economic benefit provided by RPA is highly dependent on the level of compliance with the policy. In all scenarios presented, the analysis suggests that failing to provide the young people who will be affected by the policy with options that attract them to remain in education or training would result in negligible additional attainments and commensurately small economic benefits. It may also impact on their future motivation to participate in learning.

The New Curriculum for Wales and the proposed post-compulsory education and training (PCET) reforms offer a platform for change for encouraging increased participation and compliance with post-16 education. Building on OECD country experience demonstrates the need to focus on:

• Early prevention;
• Supporting and engaging pre-16 learners who are experiencing difficulties;
• Monitoring those at risk;
• Offering good quality pathways to those less academically gifted; and
• Offering additional support for learning at the end of secondary school.

Crucially, this offer should be extended within the post-16 arena.

Taking into account existing and proposed legislation in the post-16 education and training space (e.g. the implementation of the New Curriculum for Wales and the proposed PCET reforms), recommendations include:

• Focusing on reducing post-16 attrition rates and introducing a strategy to reduce early (school) leaving;
• Providing a coherent and consistent post-16 offer which is aligned with the objectives of the New Curriculum for Wales;
• Supporting early labour market entrants and strengthening their access to continued learning; and
• Providing sustained funding for prevention and reintegration initiatives targeted at young people not in education, employment or training.