‘What scope is there for Welsh Government to do more, to change its approach, or to deliver its existing net zero ambitions more effectively?’
In its latest progress report, the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) concludes that while Wales has achieved emissions targets for the First Carbon Budget (2016-2020), the country is currently not on course to meet future targets on the pathway to net zero.
The CCC acknowledges the vital role of the UK Government in many high-emitting sectors such as energy and industry, but also highlights the areas devolved to Wales, such as agriculture and transport, where further action from the Welsh Government is needed to get emissions reduction back on track.
This further underlines the importance of the work of Wales’ Net Zero 2035 Challenge Group in the coming months, as it seeks to develop advice to the Welsh Government on potential pathways to net zero in the fastest possible timeframe, while creating a better Wales for current and future generations.
At the Wales Centre for Public Policy, we have been providing independent support to the Net Zero 2035 Challenge Group, helping them to access relevant evidence and expertise to inform their work. Our introductory report for the Group takes a detailed look at the CCC’s “balanced pathway” for Wales to achieve net zero by 2050, with some initial analysis of the implications of seeking to accelerate the timeframe for cutting emissions, particularly in sectors such as agriculture and transport where progress in Wales has historically been slow.
As we set out in a linked discussion piece, one of the key questions facing the Welsh Government – and which the Group’s advice must address – is how to prioritise in a context of multiple competing policy challenges, a complex devolution settlement, and constrained resources. Given that the Welsh Government is already pursuing policy agendas in a range of areas highlighted in the CCC’s net zero advice, what scope is there for it to do more, to change its approach, or to deliver its existing ambitions more effectively?
While achieving the balanced pathway would involve major changes across every area of society, the Group may also wish to challenge the Welsh Government to go further than the CCC’s advice envisages. After all, the CCC’s balanced pathway is just one of many possible scenarios for decarbonising the Welsh economy. As such, it reflects the CCC’s own assumptions about what societal and technological changes are feasible for Wales in the coming decades. The Group may wish to put some of these assumptions to the test as they explore how the fastest possible progress could be realised.
For example, the balanced pathway envisages relatively high levels of agricultural emissions continuing beyond 2050, increasing Wales’ reliance on carbon sequestration in order to reach its net zero target. Steeper and faster reductions in agricultural emissions are technically possible – but would likely require reductions in livestock farming, not an easy premise for a sector currently dominated by cattle and sheep farming, and already facing serious economic challenges. Seeking to reduce agricultural emissions further therefore raises difficult questions about how to ensure a just transition for farmers and secure the future prosperity of Wales’ rural communities.
In her response to the CCC’s latest progress report for Wales, Julie James, the Minister for Climate Change argued that “now is the time for strengthening our resolve to make difficult decisions” needed to safeguard progress toward net zero. Part of the potential value of the Net Zero 2035 Challenge Group is its capacity to raise and face these difficult questions – and, guided by the Well-being of Future Generations Act, to do so in a holistic way which explores the potential benefits and impacts of climate action across multiple dimensions of wellbeing.
Indeed, while the window of opportunity is narrowing fast to avert the worst ravages of climate breakdown, scientists also stress that there are multiple, feasible and effective options available for tackling human-induced climate change – with potential to build more prosperous, inclusive and equitable societies in the process. WCPP’s support to the Group aims to bring such evidence to the fore to inform the Group’s work, helping to frame questions about the right mix of policies and their paths to delivery. We look forward to supporting the Group in the coming months as it grapples with this complex set of issues.